With the Taliban offensive into Kabul it is a matter of time before the Afghanistan Ghani led Government will fall in the absence of the US military.
The Taliban has captured over 18 provincial capitals out of the 34 that exist in Afghanistan and much of southern and western Afghanistan bordering Iran is now in Taliban control. The focus of Taliban remains clear and that is to capture Kabul in coming days. With the Afghan Military surrendering at most places, the fall of Kabul is imminent. India has joined Germany, Qatar, and Turkey in calling for an immediate cessation of violence in provincial capitals and other cities.
However, India at 75 must brace for a triangular challenge where China will immediately recognize the Taliban Government and Pakistan will lend formal and informal support. Crisis in Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Israel, West Bank will cascade to influence diplomatic outcomes for West Asia and South Asia. Additionally, as much as India now consolidates, it is in South Asia’s interest to form a closely knit union with Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives and Mauritius, possibly Sri Lanka.
The challenges South Asia faces is not just diplomatic or military, but rather challenges from extreme weather events, natural disasters, climate change and public health consequences of it all.
The future of South Asia lies on India’s shoulder now with Chinese aggression visible in Ladakh, in belts of Arunachal Pradesh, in the South China Sea and other places.
India must rebuild relations by emerging as a economic powerhouse and a reliable partner for Asia and the west, evolve and curate global health diplomacy and take it to new heights by setting up Health Attaches across the Indian Embassies worldwide, invest steadily and heavily in public health across various countries as number of best practices in India can led to Godly interventions across many low and middle income countries and importantly war-torn nations and those with economic instability bordering on desperation.
India at 75 must be cautious, strategic and powerful. The decisions India makes now will influence the world and the global south for centuries to come.